Keep pulling the thread on Michael Kaufman.
Russian forces are making steady gains towards Pokrovsk and are now within artillery range of the city.
Ukrainian leadership has ordered an evacuation of Pokrovsk due to the danger from advancing Russian forces.
Ukraine is experiencing significant manpower shortages, which have been exacerbated by thinning its front lines to support the offensive in Kursk.
Michael Kaufman estimates that between 10,000 and 15,000 Ukrainian troops are involved in the Kursk offensive operation.
Russia's initial response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk was chaotic, with initial reinforcement columns being destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS strikes.
Russia lacked an operational reserve in the Kursk region at the time of the Ukrainian incursion, having only border guards and a regiment of conscripts present.
The effectiveness of Ukraine's F-16s will depend on being supplied with long-range air-to-air missiles to counter Russian glide bomb strikes.
The Biden administration is reportedly considering providing Ukraine with JASSM air-launched cruise missiles.
Unlike the 2022 Kharkiv offensive which destroyed significant Russian combat power, the 2024 Kursk offensive has not caused substantial damage to Russia's military capability.
Russia's military recruitment rate has fallen to an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 per month, a lower rate than in the previous year.
Russia has substantially increased federal and regional payout bonuses for military recruits, indicating it is not meeting its recruitment quotas.
Michael Kaufman predicts that manpower and equipment limitations will become critical for Russia over the next 6 to 12 months, reducing its ability to make significant gains in 2025.