Carnegie Politica• Feb 19, 2026• 35:21Interview

2026 Munich Security Conference Reflects Troubled Transatlantic Ties | Alexander Gabuev

From Carnegie Politica

Alexander Gabuev•Director, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Executive Summary

The transatlantic relationship is perceived by European leaders as fundamentally ruptured, moving beyond repair and forcing a push for European strategic autonomy.
A German wargame simulating a Russian attack on Lithuania highlighted NATO's vulnerability, demonstrating how a U.S.
refusal to activate defense plans could paralyze the alliance and leave Eastern Europe exposed.
Major European powers are divided on Russia policy, with French President Macron advocating for renewed dialogue while German Chancellor Merz insists on further weakening Russia before any negotiations.
role in the Ukraine conflict has shifted from leading the support coalition to acting as an 'intermediary' in peace talks, placing the financial burden on Europe, which cannot replace critical U.S.
intelligence and military capabilities.

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Concerns Raised

The U.S. may abandon its commitment to European security, effectively paralyzing NATO's collective defense.
Europe is unprepared to fill the security vacuum left by the U.S., lacking critical capabilities in intelligence and advanced air defense.
The period immediately following a potential ceasefire in Ukraine is identified as a moment of maximum danger for a Russian attack on NATO.
Internal European divisions on how to manage Russia and the U.S. could be exploited by adversaries.

Opportunities Identified

The crisis is a powerful catalyst for increased European defense spending and the development of genuine strategic autonomy.
A more transactional relationship with the U.S. could force Europe to take greater ownership of its own security and foreign policy.

Key Themes

Transatlantic Rupture and U.S. Disengagement

The episode details a profound breakdown in the U.S.-Europe relationship under a hypothetical 'Trump 2.0' administration. European leaders no longer see this as a temporary strain but a permanent rupture, with the U.S. evolving its global role and retreating from its position as the bedrock of European security.

This fundamental shift forces a complete re-evaluation of Europe's security architecture, which has been dependent on the U.S. security guarantee for over 70 years, creating significant uncertainty and risk.

The Imperative for European Strategic Autonomy

In response to U.S. unreliability, European nations, particularly Germany and France, are being compelled to pursue 'strategic autonomy'. This involves increasing defense spending, strengthening European-led security structures, and preparing to act independently of the United States.

While long-discussed, strategic autonomy is now a matter of urgent necessity. Its success or failure will determine Europe's ability to deter aggression and manage regional crises in a new geopolitical era.

NATO's Cohesion Under Threat

A recent German wargame starkly illustrated how the U.S. could paralyze NATO's collective defense. By instructing the Supreme Allied Commander not to activate defense plans, the U.S. effectively nullified the Article 5 guarantee, leaving allies to fend for themselves and revealing deep vulnerabilities in the alliance's command structure.

This challenges the core assumption of NATO's deterrent power. It signals that the alliance's credibility is contingent on U.S. political will, prompting a need for alternative European coordination mechanisms.

Divergent European Strategies on Russia

The crisis has exposed deep divisions within Europe on how to approach Russia. While mainstream powers like Germany and France seek to build strength, they disagree on the timing of diplomatic engagement. Meanwhile, a minority faction including Hungary and Slovakia advocates for hedging and accommodating Russia.

This lack of a unified strategy can be exploited by Russia and complicates Europe's ability to present a united front, weakening its negotiating position and overall security posture.

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Topics

Geopolitics Transatlantic Relations NATO European Security Strategic Autonomy Russia-Ukraine War Munich Security Conference Wargaming U.S. Foreign Policy Trump Administration Germany France Article 5 Suwałki Gap Defense Spending

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