Keep pulling the thread on Alexandra Prokopenko.
As of 2026, Russia's financial and labor reserves are almost depleted.
The Russian economy has bifurcated into a prioritized military sector that receives most resources and a civilian sector that is being starved of resources.
The Kremlin believes it can outlast its adversaries because it perceives Europe as struggling, Ukraine as tired, and the global economy as weak and on the verge of a financial crisis.
International sanctions force Russia to sell its crude oil at a significant discount.
A $10 per barrel change in the price of oil results in a 1.5 to 1.8 trillion ruble ($19 to $23 billion) impact on Russia's budget revenue.
Sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers have significantly increased the cost and complexity of its oil logistics.
Over two-thirds of Russia's regions (more than 55 out of 89) ended the previous year with a budget deficit.
According to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian government's program to write off regional budget loans will prioritize regions that provide large one-off payments to soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
Russia no longer has sufficient financial reserves to bail out all of its systemically important companies.
Russia's federal budget deficit in 2025 was 2.6% of GDP, significantly overshooting the initial government projection of 0.5% of GDP.
The Russian government is primarily financing its budget deficit through domestic borrowing.
In the first month of 2026, Russia's government income shrank by 11.6%, driven by a 50% year-over-year drop in oil and gas revenue.