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Given the negative political trends in Taiwan, the Chinese leadership is likely to conclude that military force is the only remaining option to achieve unification.
China is currently in a "pre-war condition" regarding Taiwan, meaning it is conditioning its population for conflict and increasing the readiness of its military forces.
In January, China passed a Coast Guard law that expands its legal authority to conduct maritime interdiction operations, which could be used to quarantine Taiwan.
The current U.S. policy toward Taiwan is one of strategic ambiguity, making it unclear whether the U.S. would directly defend Taiwan, what role allies like Japan would play, or if defense plans include attacking mainland China.
In the event of a limited war over Taiwan, the United States and Japan would likely sever all economic relations with China overnight.
A limited war over Taiwan would likely trigger major mobilization and re-militarization programs in both Japan and the United States.
An effective direct military defense of Taiwan by the U.S. and Japan is not realistically possible under current force postures and capabilities.
The U.S. Navy could not safely conduct two-carrier battle group operations in the Taiwan Strait today as it did in 1996 due to the growth of Chinese military capabilities.
Taiwan has become one of the world's most important producers of advanced semiconductors.
The military threat China poses to Taiwan has markedly increased due to China's extraordinary pace of military expansion and modernization.
In the last 72 hours, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft have conducted the largest challenge to Taiwan's airspace in years.
China's oppression in Hong Kong has effectively destroyed the viability of the "one country, two systems" concept as a model for unification with Taiwan.