Hoover Institution• Apr 16, 2021• 1:20:55Interview

The United States, China, And Taiwan—A Strategy To Prevent War

From Hoover Institution

And Taiwan

Executive Summary

China's rapid military modernization has fundamentally altered the strategic balance, making a direct U.S.
military defense of Taiwan, similar to the 1996 intervention, no longer realistically possible.
The long-standing U.S.
policy of 'strategic ambiguity' is now considered an insufficient deterrent, increasing the risk of miscalculation by Beijing, which may see force as its only option for unification.
A new strategy is proposed, focusing on building a coalition with allies like Japan and Australia to impose severe, pre-planned economic and diplomatic costs on China in the event of an attack, rather than aiming for a direct military victory.
Taiwan's critical role as a leading producer of advanced semiconductors adds a significant global economic dimension to the conflict, making its security a vital interest for international supply chains and technological stability.

12 quotes

Concerns Raised

China's military modernization has made a direct U.S. defense of Taiwan unfeasible.
The current U.S. policy of 'strategic ambiguity' is no longer a sufficient deterrent and may invite miscalculation.
China may conclude that military force is its only remaining option to achieve unification with Taiwan.
Building a cohesive and committed international coalition to counter potential Chinese aggression is challenging and uncertain.

Opportunities Identified

Shift U.S. strategy to focus on imposing severe economic and diplomatic costs on China, leveraging its global vulnerabilities.
Strengthen alliances with Japan and Australia to create a united front for deterrence.
Assist Taiwan in bolstering its own asymmetric 'porcupine' defense capabilities to raise the cost of an invasion.
Leverage Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor industry as a point of strategic influence.

Key Themes

Shifting Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait

The discussion highlights the profound impact of China's two-decade military buildup, which has effectively eroded the United States' ability to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait as it did in 1996. This new reality necessitates a complete overhaul of U.S. deterrence strategy, as traditional military superiority can no longer be assumed.

This shift is the central problem driving the conversation, forcing policymakers to abandon old assumptions and develop new, more credible strategies to prevent a conflict.

The Limits of Strategic Ambiguity

The traditional U.S. policy of not explicitly stating whether it would defend Taiwan is now viewed as dangerously outdated. Given China's increased capabilities and resolve, this ambiguity is seen as more likely to invite aggression than to deter it, creating a high risk of miscalculation by Beijing's leadership.

This theme signals a major potential pivot in U.S. foreign policy, moving toward greater clarity on the consequences of an attack to re-establish a credible deterrent.

Coalition-Based Deterrence

The proposed strategy relies heavily on coordinated action with regional allies, primarily Japan and Australia. The focus is on pre-planning severe, joint economic and diplomatic sanctions to make the costs of an invasion unacceptably high for China, shifting the deterrent from direct military threat to crippling international isolation.

This approach underscores that the Taiwan issue is not just a U.S.-China problem but a regional and global one, whose resolution depends on the cohesion and commitment of Indo-Pacific democracies.

Taiwan's Geostrategic and Technological Importance

Taiwan's significance is framed not only as a democratic outpost but also as a linchpin of the global technology economy due to its dominance in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. A Chinese takeover would give Beijing immense leverage over global supply chains and represent a major blow to the economic and security interests of the U.S. and its allies.

This elevates the conflict beyond a purely military or ideological struggle, highlighting the tangible, high-stakes economic consequences that would ripple across the globe.

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Topics

Taiwan China US-China Relations Indo-Pacific Strategy Military Modernization Deterrence Theory Strategic Ambiguity Semiconductors Geopolitics National Security Alliance Building The Quad Japan Cross-Strait Relations PLA (People's Liberation Army)

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