A potential war over Taiwan is deterrable, but requires urgent, coordinated action from the U.S., Taiwan, Japan, and other allies to erode Xi Jinping's personal optimism that he can succeed.
faces a critical gap not in technology, but in the quantity of key munitions and platforms, as defense spending stagnates and the U.S.
Navy is projected to be significantly outnumbered by China's fleet.
Japan's role is considered a decisive "swing state" factor in any Taiwan conflict, making deep military and logistical integration between the U.S.
and Japan a top priority for regional deterrence.
Taiwan must bolster its own defenses, not just by extending conscription, but by radically improving the training and readiness of its large but poorly prepared reserve force to demonstrate a credible national will to fight.
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Concerns Raised
Xi Jinping's rising optimism that he can win a war over Taiwan.
Insufficient U.S. defense spending and a shrinking U.S. Navy and military industrial base.
The poor training and readiness of Taiwan's large military reserve force.
The American public may not fully grasp the stakes involved in a Taiwan conflict.
The potential for a blockade scenario, though it is viewed as less likely than a full invasion.
Opportunities Identified
A war is highly deterrable if the U.S. and its allies act with urgency.
Japan is significantly increasing its defense capabilities and is willing to play a decisive role.
The recent national security supplemental bill provides a significant boost to U.S. weapons production.
Taiwan has demonstrated political will by extending military conscription, a move that is popular with its public.
The economic response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created a clear precedent for sanctions against an aggressor.