China is identified as the 'decisive enabler' of a network of autocratic states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This support ranges from economic lifelines, like large-scale energy purchases, to critical dual-use military components, such as drone parts for Russia's war in Ukraine.
A potential military conflict over Taiwan is no longer a distant eventuality but a pressing, near-term threat that could occur within a few years. China's rapid military modernization, including its nuclear buildup, is increasingly focused on preparing for a Taiwan contingency, with a reported 2027 readiness deadline from Xi Jinping.
China's support has been indispensable to Russia's war effort, providing economic relief from sanctions and supplying all critical components for its drone program. In exchange, Russia is increasingly willing to sell its most advanced military technology to China, accelerating the PLA's modernization.
There is a strong consensus that the U.S. must adapt its strategy and government structure to counter China's multifaceted challenge. Key recommendations include unifying disparate economic statecraft functions, such as integrating the Bureau of Industry and Security into a new strategic trade agency, to better wield economic tools for national security.
Keep pulling the thread on Hal Brands, Michael Kuiken.