The President's Inbox• Nov 26, 2025• 37:35Interview

Are We Ready? | China's Campaign to Reshape the Global Order, With Hal Brands and Michael Kuiken

From The President's Inbox

Hal Brands, Michael Kuiken•Commissioners, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Executive Summary

China is the central enabler of a growing coalition of autocratic powers, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea, providing critical economic and military support that sustains their challenges to the U.S.-led order.
The risk of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is a near-term threat, with Xi Jinping reportedly directing the PLA to be ready by 2027, making deterrence an urgent priority for the U.S.
China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine is decisive, involving the provision of essential dual-use components for drones and economic lifelines, which in turn accelerates China's own military modernization.
government's current structure is inadequate for strategic competition, prompting recommendations to unify economic statecraft functions to more effectively counter China's influence.

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Concerns Raised

China is enabling an 'axis of autocracy' (Russia, Iran, North Korea), creating multiple, interconnected global threats.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a near-term possibility (e.g., by 2027), and the U.S. may not be fully prepared.
China's support is prolonging the war in Ukraine while simultaneously accelerating its own military modernization.
The U.S. government's economic statecraft tools are not sufficiently integrated to effectively compete with China.

Opportunities Identified

Reorganizing U.S. government functions to create a more unified and powerful economic statecraft apparatus.
Strengthening alliances, particularly with the Philippines, to bolster regional deterrence against China.
Using integrated economic tools like export controls and sanctions to slow China's military modernization.

Key Themes

The 'Axis of Autocracy'

China is identified as the 'decisive enabler' of a network of autocratic states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This support ranges from economic lifelines, like large-scale energy purchases, to critical dual-use military components, such as drone parts for Russia's war in Ukraine.

This coordinated challenge complicates U.S. foreign policy by creating interconnected, multi-front threats, amplifying the capabilities of individual adversaries and increasing global instability.

The Imminent Taiwan Threat

A potential military conflict over Taiwan is no longer a distant eventuality but a pressing, near-term threat that could occur within a few years. China's rapid military modernization, including its nuclear buildup, is increasingly focused on preparing for a Taiwan contingency, with a reported 2027 readiness deadline from Xi Jinping.

A war over Taiwan would be a cataclysm for the global economy and could trigger a direct great-power conflict between the U.S. and China, making effective military and economic deterrence a paramount and urgent concern.

Sino-Russian Military-Economic Partnership

China's support has been indispensable to Russia's war effort, providing economic relief from sanctions and supplying all critical components for its drone program. In exchange, Russia is increasingly willing to sell its most advanced military technology to China, accelerating the PLA's modernization.

This partnership not only prolongs the war in Ukraine but also directly worsens the security challenge the U.S. faces in the Indo-Pacific by enhancing China's military capabilities and providing Beijing with valuable intelligence on Western military tactics.

Reforming U.S. Economic Statecraft

There is a strong consensus that the U.S. must adapt its strategy and government structure to counter China's multifaceted challenge. Key recommendations include unifying disparate economic statecraft functions, such as integrating the Bureau of Industry and Security into a new strategic trade agency, to better wield economic tools for national security.

The current U.S. government organization is seen as ill-equipped for long-term strategic competition, necessitating significant reforms to effectively deploy economic levers like export controls and sanctions to slow China's military advance and deter aggression.

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Topics

U.S.-China relations Geopolitical competition Taiwan Military modernization People's Liberation Army (PLA)Axis of Autocracy Russia-China relations Ukraine War Dual-use technology Drones Economic statecraft Sanctions Export controls U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Deterrence

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