Hoover Institution• Mar 7, 2023• 1:18:23Interview

Then What? Assessing The Military Implications Of Chinese Control Of Taiwan | Hoover Institution

From Hoover Institution

Caitlin Talmadge•Associate Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University

Executive Summary

Chinese control of Taiwan would provide significant geostrategic military advantages, fundamentally altering the U.S.-China military balance in the Western Pacific.
Basing submarines in Taiwan's eastern deep-water ports would allow China's navy to bypass U.S.
anti-submarine warfare (ASW) barriers along the first island chain, gaining direct access to the Philippine Sea.
China could deploy underwater sensor arrays off Taiwan's east coast, dramatically improving its ability to detect, track, and target U.S.
surface and submarine forces.
This shift would significantly increase the costs and risks for the U.S.
to operate in the region, thereby undermining the credibility of its security commitments to allies like Japan.

9 quotes

Concerns Raised

Chinese submarines gaining direct, unimpeded access to the Pacific Ocean.
Erosion of U.S. submarine stealth advantage due to potential Chinese underwater sensor networks.
Significant increase in the vulnerability of U.S. surface naval forces in the Western Pacific.
Undermining of U.S. security guarantees to key allies, particularly Japan.

Opportunities Identified

Strengthening deterrence to prevent a Chinese takeover of Taiwan by highlighting the severe military consequences.
Encouraging Taiwan to invest in its own asymmetric defense and underwater surveillance capabilities.
Prioritizing U.S. and allied investment in next-generation anti-submarine warfare (ASW) technologies.

Key Themes

Geostrategic Importance of Taiwan

The analysis moves beyond typical economic and political arguments to focus on Taiwan's physical location as a critical military asset. Control of the island would allow China to break its geographical constraints and project naval power, particularly its submarine fleet, directly into the Pacific.

This reframes the debate over defending Taiwan, highlighting that a Chinese takeover would have direct, tangible consequences for the U.S. military's ability to operate in the region and defend its allies.

Submarine Warfare and ASW Dominance

A central argument is that Chinese control of Taiwan would neutralize a key U.S. advantage by allowing Chinese submarines to bypass chokepoints and U.S. ASW sensor networks in the first island chain. Basing submarines on Taiwan's east coast provides unimpeded access to the deep waters of the Philippine Sea.

This would significantly increase the threat to U.S. naval assets, including aircraft carriers, forcing a major recalculation of risk and strategy for any U.S. intervention in the region.

Ocean Surveillance and Targeting

The speaker argues that China could deploy its own passive acoustic sensor arrays off Taiwan's east coast. This would create a powerful ocean surveillance network, providing high-quality data to cue satellites and other systems for targeting U.S. surface ships and submarines.

Enhanced Chinese surveillance would make the Western Pacific a much more transparent and dangerous environment for the U.S. Navy, eroding the stealth advantage of its submarine fleet and increasing the vulnerability of all naval forces.

Alliance Security and Regional Power Balance

A Chinese-controlled Taiwan would dramatically increase the military threat to U.S. allies, particularly Japan, whose southern islands are in close proximity. The increased cost and risk for the U.S. to project power would weaken the credibility of its defense commitments throughout the Indo-Pacific.

This highlights the cascading effect of a Taiwan contingency, suggesting its fall would not be an isolated event but would destabilize the entire U.S. alliance structure in Asia.

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Topics

Taiwan Geopolitics U.S.-China Relations Military Strategy Naval Warfare Submarine Warfare Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)First Island Chain Philippine Sea Ocean Surveillance Acoustic Sensors Indo-Pacific Security U.S. Alliances Japan Deterrence

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