Keep pulling the thread on Caitlin Talmadge.
With control of Taiwan, China could deploy its own passive acoustic sensor arrays off the island's east coast to detect and track noisy U.S. surface naval forces at very long distances.
Data from passive acoustic sensor arrays off Taiwan could provide queuing information for satellites to target U.S. surface forces with anti-ship missiles like the DF-21 and DF-26.
China has important geostrategic motives for controlling Taiwan beyond the commonly cited nationalist and political reasons.
Chinese control of Taiwan would increase the military costs for the U.S. to maintain a credible defense commitment to allies like South Korea and Japan.
Japan would likely become militarily involved in a conflict to prevent China from taking control of Taiwan due to the island's strategic military value.
Chinese control of Taiwan would significantly impact the future military balance between the United States and China.
The United States maintains anti-submarine warfare (ASW) sensor barriers along the first island chain to detect Chinese submarines attempting to enter the Pacific Ocean.
If China controlled Taiwan, it could base its submarines in Taiwan's eastern deep water ports, allowing them to bypass U.S. anti-submarine warfare (ASW) barriers and gain direct access to the Philippine Sea.
If China develops a large fleet of quiet submarines, which it does not have today, basing them on Taiwan would enable it to threaten sea lanes of communication and strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent.
China's over-the-horizon radars on the mainland, used for detecting U.S. surface forces, are vulnerable to jamming and kinetic attack in a major conflict.
China could construct the necessary deep-water submarine ports in Taiwan in five to ten years, and potentially faster.
China has not yet developed truly quiet submarines primarily because the technology is extremely difficult to master.