Hoover Institution• Mar 26, 2026• 1:51:42Interview

Wargaming The Pacific: Lessons From The Naval War College's Interwar Games | Hoover Institution

From Hoover Institution

Wargaming The Pacific

Executive Summary

Naval War College wargames in the interwar period were critical in preparing a generation of officers for World War II, fostering a common strategic mindset and deep understanding of naval aviation.
These wargames directly led to a fundamental shift in U.S.
strategy against Japan, forcing leadership to abandon the unrealistic 'through ticket to Manila' plan after simulations in the early 1930s repeatedly demonstrated its failure.
The historical success of integrating emerging technology (aircraft) through wargaming provides a powerful model for how the modern military should approach the integration of AI, cyber, and unmanned systems.
While highly effective, the wargames had limitations, including flawed intelligence on enemy capabilities (e.g., Japanese torpedoes) and a failure to anticipate novel tactics like kamikazes, highlighting that games are tools for thought, not prediction.

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Concerns Raised

The U.S. Navy may not be sending its top-tier officers to the War College today, unlike in the influential interwar period.
Modern wargames may not be effectively integrating emerging technologies like AI and cyber to educate the broader officer corps.
The institutional support for rigorous, intellectually honest wargaming is fragile and can decline, reducing its strategic impact.

Opportunities Identified

Apply the historical model of interwar wargaming to understand and integrate modern disruptive technologies like AI and drones.
Utilize newly digitized historical wargame archives to democratize research and generate new strategic insights.
Reinvigorate wargaming in PME to foster a common strategic culture and decision-making excellence among current commanders.

Key Themes

Wargaming as a Catalyst for Strategic Evolution

The interwar wargames served as a laboratory for strategy, most notably revealing the flaws in War Plan Orange. Repeated simulations in the early 1930s demonstrated that a direct fleet advance to relieve the Philippines was unfeasible, forcing a major, necessary re-evaluation of U.S. Pacific strategy years before the war began.

This demonstrates the power of rigorous, adversarial simulation to challenge and overturn deeply held but flawed strategic assumptions, preventing catastrophic failures in actual conflict.

Educating a Generation of Wartime Leaders

The Naval War College's primary contribution was educational, not predictive. It taught a generation of future admirals like Nimitz and Spruance how to think critically and make decisions under pressure, creating a shared intellectual framework that proved decisive in World War II.

This underscores the vital role of professional military education (PME) in developing adaptable leaders, suggesting that the process of gaming and the cognitive skills it builds are more important than the specific outcomes of any single game.

Integrating Emerging Technologies

The wargames were essential for understanding the capabilities and vulnerabilities of the era's disruptive technology: the aircraft carrier. Non-aviator officers learned how to employ naval aviation, leading to innovations like separating carrier groups from the main battle line, a concept validated in the games.

This provides a direct historical analogue for today's challenges, arguing that wargaming is the most effective method for integrating complex new technologies like AI, cyber, and drones into military doctrine and operations.

The Institutional Fragility of Strategic Thought

The Naval War College's influence and effectiveness were not constant, facing challenges with budget, institutional relevance, and attracting top-tier students. Its success in the 1920s and 30s was dependent on strong leadership and institutional buy-in, which later declined, highlighting the vulnerability of such institutions.

This serves as a cautionary tale that intellectual and strategic development within the military requires sustained, high-level support and a commitment to sending the best personnel, a challenge that persists today.

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Topics

Naval War College Wargaming Military History Interwar Period World War II Naval Strategy War Plan Orange Military Innovation Technology Integration Aircraft Carriers Professional Military Education (PME)Decision-Making U.S. Navy Geopolitics AI in Defense

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