Keep pulling the thread on Xi Jinping.
China's industrial policy is shifting to prioritize "orderly competition" and achieving "zero to one breakthroughs" in frontier industries like quantum technology, chips, and biotechnology.
In Xi Jinping's assessment, the single most significant variable that could prevent a successful military operation against Taiwan is intervention by the U.S. military.
A primary driver for Xi Jinping's decision-making on Taiwan is the perceived intent of Taiwanese leaders, such as Lai Ching-de, to push for a Taiwanese identity distinct from the People's Republic of China.
Recent large-scale purges within the People's Liberation Army are eroding Xi Jinping's confidence in the military's ability to successfully execute a Taiwan contingency.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not considered imminent.
Major Chinese technology companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are re-architecting their business models to focus on AI and cloud infrastructure, moving away from platforms, social media, and consumer finance.
It is unlikely that Xi Jinping will reveal a concrete succession plan at the 2027 Party Congress.
China's property sector is undergoing a long-term slowdown that negatively impacts household wealth and local government finances.
Xi Jinping's purges of Communist Party officials are a feature of his governance model, described as "self-revolution," intended as a display of strength rather than a sign of weakness.
Internationally, property market corrections can last between 8 and 20 years, and China is currently in the fifth year of its correction.
A younger generation of Chinese tech entrepreneurs in fields like AI and robotics are highly energized by new opportunities, in contrast to the general pessimism among their peers.
A key indicator of future leadership changes in China will be whether Xi Jinping makes exceptions to the traditional retirement age of 68 for his close allies like Li Qiang and Cai Qi at the 2027 Party Congress.