Global energy markets are undergoing a fundamental geographic shift. While demand in the OECD and China is projected to plateau or decline, India and the ASEAN bloc are set to become the primary drivers of energy consumption growth, creating new dependencies and market dynamics.
The rapid proliferation of AI and data centers is creating an unanticipated surge in electricity demand, forcing mature economies like Japan and the US to radically revise their power consumption forecasts upwards. While AI also offers significant energy efficiency potential, its net effect is a major new challenge for power generation and grid infrastructure.
Despite decarbonization pressures, natural gas and LNG are projected to play a durable role in the global energy mix. A near-term supply glut, driven by US projects, is expected to lower prices and enhance LNG's attractiveness as a pragmatic transition fuel, particularly for coal-reliant Asian economies.
The analysis highlights a growing gap between ambitious climate goals and the practical realities of the energy transition. The IEEJ's models show that even with the maximum deployment of advanced technologies, decarbonizing industrial and transport sectors is incredibly difficult, making the 1.5°C target likely unattainable and pushing net-zero past 2070.
Keep pulling the thread on United States.