USCC's Hearing on the Competition With China in Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands
From U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
Executive Summary
A 2024 survey reveals a significant geopolitical shift, with Southeast Asian elites now preferring alignment with China over the United States for the first time, a change partly attributed to the U.S.
stance on the Gaza crisis.
and China are engaged in an asymmetric competition where the U.S.
is the region's leading security provider, but China dominates economically with nearly double the trade volume and is closing the investment gap.
China is entrenching its influence through tangible infrastructure projects (Belt and Road), dominance in key tech sectors like EVs and telecommunications (Huawei), and by positioning itself as a key security partner to Pacific Island nations.
economic statecraft, including initiatives like the BUILD Act and Blue Dot Network, has failed to produce significant results, creating a perception gap where China is seen as delivering while the U.S.
offers promises.
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Concerns Raised
Rapid decline in U.S. favorability among regional elites, ceding diplomatic ground to China.
China's entrenchment in critical infrastructure and technology supply chains, creating long-term dependencies.
The ineffectiveness of U.S. economic initiatives to counter China's tangible Belt and Road projects.
China's successful use of state-owned enterprises and security assistance to achieve geopolitical goals, such as flipping diplomatic recognition in the Pacific Islands.
Opportunities Identified
The U.S. maintains a significant advantage in services trade with Southeast Asia, an area for potential growth.
Regional countries' inherent desire to avoid domination by a single power creates demand for U.S. and allied engagement.
Collaborating with allies like Japan and Australia can create a more compelling, multilateral development and security offer.
Partnering with nations like the Philippines on law enforcement and intelligence sharing can counter Chinese-linked transnational crime.