Keep pulling the thread on Jan Hatzis.
Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.6% for 2026, which is above the Wall Street consensus.
Jan Hatzis estimates that U.S. fiscal policy, including tax cuts and higher refunds, will add between 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth in the first half of 2026.
Jan Hatzis asserts that AI investment had a negligible, "basically zero," impact on U.S. GDP growth in 2025.
Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. inflation will be around 2% in 2026, which is lower than the consensus on Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core PCE inflation will decrease from its current level of 2.7% to approximately 2.1% by the end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs forecasts the Federal Reserve will implement two more interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, penciled in for March and June of 2026.
Goldman Sachs projects the U.S. federal deficit will be about 6% of GDP and the general government deficit will be 7% to 8% of GDP over the next five to ten years.
Goldman Sachs forecasts China's GDP will grow by 4.8% in 2026, a forecast that is above the market consensus.
China's real export volume growth was close to double digits in 2025, demonstrating resilience despite sharp increases in U.S. tariffs.
The downturn in China's property market is estimated to have subtracted two percentage points from GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, with a projected drag of 1.5 percentage points in 2026.
Jan Hatzis projects that China's current account surplus will grow to approximately 1% of global GDP by the end of the decade, reaching uncharted territory for global imbalances.
Goldman Sachs forecasts the Bank of England will deliver three additional rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, bringing the bank rate to 3% by the end of 2026.