Keep pulling the thread on The Big Picture.
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026.
Goldman Sachs Research predicts China's current account surplus will grow to approximately 1% of global GDP, which would be the largest in recorded history.
Goldman Sachs Research estimates that China's property sector will subtract approximately 1.5 percentage points from its GDP growth in 2026.
The current 2% trend in U.S. productivity growth does not yet include any significant impact from AI adoption.
Jan Hatsias predicts that as AI's impact on the economy grows, U.S. productivity growth could accelerate from its current 2% trend to 2.5%.
Goldman Sachs Research estimates that AI investment had no measurable effect on U.S. GDP growth in 2025.
Jan Hatsias expects the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to implement interest rate cuts in 2026.
Jan Hatsias forecasts the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy rate will be cut to approximately 3% by the end of 2026.
Goldman Sachs Research forecasts the Bank of England will implement three additional interest rate cuts over the next three quarters of 2026 from the current rate of 3.75%.
Goldman Sachs Research's global economic growth forecast for 2026 is more optimistic than the consensus view.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in the U.S. is expected to support economic growth through tax cuts.
Germany is implementing fiscal easing measures that are expected to support its economic growth.