Gulf states are deliberately maintaining contradictory positions: publicly calling for diplomacy, privately urging the US to continue its military campaign, and secretly granting limited base access. This is not confusion but a calculated strategy to manage multiple audiences (domestic, regional, US, and Iranian) simultaneously.
The conflict has weaponized the global energy supply, with the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a massive shock to oil markets. The analysis details the immediate price spike to $120/barrel and credible projections of $150/barrel, which would trigger a global recession.
The analysis identifies the Gulf states' critical dependence on desalination plants for fresh water as their primary vulnerability. An Iranian strike on this infrastructure is framed as the ultimate red line that would force them to abandon their ambiguous posture and enter the war directly and openly.
Despite its military presence, the US was initially denied access to Gulf bases and airspace for its offensive against Iran, forcing it to use more distant assets. The Gulf states' refusal to join a formal naval coalition, even while under attack, underscores their willingness to defy Washington's requests to protect their own interests.
Keep pulling the thread on Saudi Arabia.