Keep pulling the thread on United States.
Operating costs for U.S. trucking carriers, including insurance, litigation, digital freight theft, and equipment, are increasing at a rate faster than inflation.
The U.S. freight market has been in a recession for three and a half years as of the start of 2026.
Paul Pfeiffer predicts that U.S. freight rates are at an inflection point and are poised to increase in 2026.
The U.S. tax cuts enacted in 2017 have been made permanent.
Trucking capacity is continuing to exit the U.S. market due to an increase in bankruptcies among small and medium-sized carriers.
In late 2025, a weak retail shipping season combined with minor weather events was sufficient to push U.S. freight into the higher-priced spot market, indicating a tight supply-demand balance.
Higher spot market freight prices in the U.S. persisted into early January 2026, which is atypical for that time of year.
Paul Pfeiffer predicts that U.S. freight rate movements in the first half of 2026 will be driven primarily by carrier discipline in rejecting unprofitable loads, rather than by macroeconomic growth.
Asset-based trucking carriers in the U.S. are increasingly willing to accept lower positions on shipper routing guides, prioritizing profitability over freight volume.
The freight recession ongoing at the start of 2026 is the longest on record for the U.S. market, although it is not the deepest.
Paul Pfeiffer believes there are no guaranteed catalysts for significant change in supply or demand within the U.S. trucking market at the start of 2026.
The U.S. freight market in 2026 is expected to be characterized by gradual changes rather than major, dramatic swings.