Keep pulling the thread on United States.
Geopolitical issues preventing vessels from transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal have reduced global shipping capacity and extended supply chain transit times.
Forecasts predict a year-over-year decline of up to 10% in U.S. import volume for Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025.
In the period leading up to Chinese New Year in 2026, ocean freight carriers are expected to try to maintain shipping rates of approximately $3,000 to the U.S. West Coast and $4,000 to the U.S. East Coast.
There are strong indications that some ocean freight carriers will attempt to resume using the Suez Canal in 2026 after a two-year hiatus.
Ocean freight carriers successfully implemented a General Rate Increase (GRI) in mid-December 2025 and are expected to implement another on January 1, 2026.
Ocean freight carriers are implementing a significant number of "blank sailings" to reduce market overcapacity and increase shipping prices.
Changing trade policies and the introduction of various tariffs in the United States during the last 7-8 months of 2025 caused significant turmoil for importers, leading them to pause long-term planning.
In the latter half of 2025, U.S. importers increased their inventories by moving large amounts of product into the country during periods when tariffs were temporarily paused.
U.S. companies are expected to manage their existing elevated inventories rather than replenish stock in early 2026 due to ongoing uncertainty in trade compliance and customs policies.
The initial expectation for the 2026 ocean freight contract year is that rates will remain at approximately the same level as they were in 2020.
In 2025, the Oceania freight market experienced shipping delays due to prolonged congestion at major Chinese ports, including Shanghai and Ningbo.
Shipping services between Europe and Oceania were disrupted in 2025 due to persistent congestion at major Northern European ports.