Keep pulling the thread on Kevin Good.
The overall U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low.
The U.S. calf crop in 2025 was the smallest in over 70 years.
U.S. beef demand is currently at a 40-year high.
Kevin Good predicts that if the U.S. border with Mexico reopens in the first half of 2026, the cattle market will decline in the second half of the year.
Kevin Good predicts that if the U.S. border with Mexico remains closed, the cattle market will likely stay strong through 2027.
As of January 1, 2026, the number of bred beef females increased by only 42,000 head, indicating very low heifer retention for herd rebuilding.
Kevin Good believes there is a real likelihood of more meatpacking plant closures in 2026 if the U.S.-Mexico border does not reopen soon.
Excess daily processing capacity in the meatpacking industry has narrowed from an average of 7,000 head last year to a current average of 4,000 to 5,000 head.
Kevin Good expects market leverage to continue to favor the cattle feeder due to the imbalance between processing capacity and cattle supply.
Cattle Facts analyst Kevin Good previously forecasted in late 2024 that cattle prices would peak in 2025 and then experience a modest correction in 2026.
The number of cattle on feed at the start of 2026 was down by nearly 500,000 head compared to the previous year.
Kevin Good predicts that 2026 will be a very good year for cattle prices.