The continental cattle supply is being shaped by significant cross-border issues. The closure of the US-Mexico border has removed over a million head of feeder cattle from the US market, while Canada has become increasingly reliant on record imports of US feeder cattle to sustain its own supplies.
Beef demand reached a 40-year high in 2025, but there are signs it may be peaking. Record-high retail prices are expected to cause a slight pullback in consumer purchasing in 2026, forcing restaurants and retailers to get creative with alternative, more affordable cuts.
Producers are receiving strong price signals to expand their herds, but environmental factors are a major constraint. Heifer retention is expected to be mild and highly regional, concentrated in areas with adequate moisture, while drought in the western US will prevent a broad-based recovery.
The beef industry faces growing political risks in 2026. Tensions are expected to rise over 'Product of USA' labeling and voluntary country of origin labeling, alongside ongoing CUSMA (USMCA) negotiations, creating potential for trade disruptions and market volatility.
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