Keep pulling the thread on Xi Jinping.
A recent article by Xi Jinping identified expanding domestic demand as a strategic priority for China's leadership.
Arthur Krober believes China will continue to pursue a growth trajectory driven by supply-side industrial policy and technological upgrading, as this remains its core strategic priority.
Arthur Krober's team estimates that fiscal stimulus in China will decrease from approximately 2.5% of GDP in the current year to around 1% of GDP in the next year.
Arthur Krober asserts that China is currently experiencing its weakest job market in the last 30 years or more.
According to Wang Xiangwei, Xi Jinping's declaration that 'housing is for living, not for speculation' has fundamentally altered public perception in China, with people no longer viewing property as an investment vehicle.
Arthur Krober stated that bank loans to China's industrial sector surged six-fold, from 500 billion renminbi in 2019 to 3 trillion renminbi in 2023, which fueled a massive increase in industrial capacity.
Arthur Krober stated that China's industrial sector has not created any net new jobs in the past 13 years, with all job growth originating from the service sector.
China's economic data for November showed poor performance across retail sales, fixed asset investment, and the property sector.
According to Arthur Krober, the Central Economic Work Conference communique shifted its language from 'consumption' to the broader 'domestic demand,' suggesting a policy focus on social security and income support over consumer stimulus programs.
Michael Herschon observed that the language from China's Central Economic Work Conference signaled significantly less urgency to boost economic growth compared to the previous year.
Michael Herschon interprets the description of domestic demand as a 'strategic' priority to mean it is a long-term goal for China's leadership, rather than a near-term tool for economic stimulus.
For the first time, Premier Li Qiang included the phrase 'investing in human capital' in his annual government work report in March.