Sinica Podcast• Jul 4, 2025• 1:06:12Interview

Kaiser Kuo’s Sinica Podcast: China and the US in 2025, with Jessica Chen Weiss and Ryan Hass

From Sinica Podcast

Jessica Chen Weiss, Ryan Hass•Professor of China Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Director, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution

Executive Summary

A potential second Trump administration would pursue a highly personalized, transactional, and unpredictable China policy focused on re-industrializing the U.S., controlling borders, and reducing the trade deficit.
Beijing is better prepared for a Trump presidency this time, aiming to leverage U.S.
pressure as a catalyst to accelerate its own domestic industrial and technological self-sufficiency.
The U.S.-Europe alliance is under significant strain, with Europe viewing the U.S.
as an unreliable partner and economic adversary, creating a complex opening for China to improve relations despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The technology competition, particularly in semiconductors, is set to intensify, with the U.S.
likely expanding export controls while China doubles down on domestic innovation through massive state-backed venture capital funds.

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Concerns Raised

The unpredictable and personalized nature of Trump's foreign policy could lead to severe miscalculation and instability.
The fracturing of the U.S.-Europe alliance weakens the collective West and creates a more volatile global environment.
A U.S. retreat from providing global public goods could trigger a 'Kindleberger Trap' scenario, leading to widespread disorder.
Escalating tech competition could decouple global supply chains, heighten national security risks, and stifle innovation.

Opportunities Identified

China can use U.S. pressure as a catalyst to accelerate its own domestic technological and industrial self-sufficiency.
China may be able to improve its diplomatic and economic relationships with a strategically alienated Europe.
Narrow areas of mutual U.S.-China interest, such as counternarcotics (fentanyl), demonstrate that targeted cooperation remains possible.

Key Themes

The Nature of a Trump 2.0 Foreign Policy

A second Trump administration's foreign policy is expected to be highly personalized and transactional, operating like a 'palace court' where decisions are driven by the president's personal relationships and core domestic priorities like re-industrialization. This approach marks a significant departure from traditional, institutionalized foreign policy, creating a highly unpredictable international environment.

This shift away from established diplomatic norms and alliance commitments requires other nations, including China, to adapt their strategies to engage directly with a leader who views international relations as a series of personal deals rather than a system of shared interests and values.

China's Strategic Adaptation

Having experienced one Trump term, China is no longer caught off-guard and is better prepared for a potential return. Beijing's strategy involves weathering U.S. pressure while using it as a catalyst to accelerate domestic goals, particularly achieving technological self-sufficiency and upgrading its industrial base to reduce reliance on foreign technology.

China's proactive and adaptive stance means it may be more resilient to U.S. economic and technological pressure, potentially turning a geopolitical challenge into a long-term strategic advantage.

The Fracturing Transatlantic Alliance

Under a potential Trump administration, Europe increasingly views the United States as an unreliable security partner and an economic adversary. China is attempting to capitalize on this rift by positioning itself as a force for stability and recognizing Europe as a distinct pole of global power, though its tacit support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict remains a major obstacle to a deeper rapprochement.

The weakening of the transatlantic alliance fundamentally alters the geopolitical landscape, potentially reducing the effectiveness of a united Western front on issues related to China and creating a more multipolar world.

Intensifying U.S.-China Tech Competition

The technological rivalry, centered on advanced semiconductors, is set to escalate significantly. The U.S. is expected to tighten and expand export controls to stifle China's tech progress, while China responds with massive state investment, such as a new one trillion yuan venture capital fund, to build a self-reliant domestic chip industry.

This 'tech war' will have profound consequences for global supply chains, national security, and the future of innovation, forcing companies and countries to navigate an increasingly bifurcated technological ecosystem.

The Global Leadership Vacuum

The discussion highlights the risk of a 'Kindleberger Trap,' where a retreating incumbent power (the U.S.) is no longer willing or able to provide global public goods, and the rising power (China) is not yet prepared or capable of filling the void. This creates a dangerous period of global instability, as the international system lacks a clear stabilizing force.

This leadership gap increases the risk of cascading global crises, from economic turmoil to regional conflicts, as the established international order erodes without a viable replacement.

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Topics

US-China relations Trump administration Biden administration Foreign policy Geopolitics Transatlantic alliance Europe-China relations Technology competition Semiconductors CHIPS and Science Act Export controls Industrial policy Taiwan Ukraine War Russia-China relations Kindleberger Trap Global public goods Munich Security Conference Tariffs

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