Keep pulling the thread on Peter Zeihan.
The United States and Israel began a joint military campaign against Iran in early March 2026.
Following the death of Ayatollah al-Khamenei in early military strikes, his son has been chosen as Iran's new supreme leader.
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 due to the military conflict with Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been blocked for the first time in history.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced by 98%, preventing an estimated 15 million barrels of oil per day from being exported.
Due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, 4 million barrels per day of crude oil production has been shut-in.
The current disruption to energy supplies is already sufficient to cause a global recession, even if the conflict ends immediately.
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has blocked 20% of the global LNG supply, all of which originates from Qatar.
President Donald Trump has stated his goals for the Iran conflict include handpicking the country's next leader and demanding an unconditional surrender.
Chinese cargo ships are continuing to deliver equipment to Iranian ports, supplying components for weapons like Shahed drones.
The US intelligence and defense communities have assessed for the last 45 years that an air war against Iran cannot produce meaningful long-term change.
If the US declares victory and withdraws from the conflict, Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within a year.