Keep pulling the thread on Niall Ferguson.
China is supplying Russia with military hardware for its war in Ukraine.
On April 2nd, President Trump declared "Liberation Day" and announced reciprocal tariffs on all countries not already under sanctions, with some tariffs reaching as high as 125%.
Niall Ferguson assesses that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration against China resulted in a strategic win for Xi Jinping.
China retaliated against U.S. tariffs by implementing export controls on rare earth elements.
China holds a global monopoly on the mining and refining of rare earth elements, giving it significant economic leverage over the United States and the rest of the world.
Xi Jinping has set a deadline for the Chinese army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Niall Ferguson predicts that China will not invade Taiwan in 2026 or 2027 because its military is not yet ready for such a challenging operation.
The United States holds leverage over China through its ability to restrict access to sophisticated semiconductors designed by NVIDIA and manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan.
China's key demand in negotiations with the U.S. is for an explicit statement opposing Taiwanese independence, a concession Niall Ferguson believes President Trump is unlikely to make.
The United States and Israel conducted a joint attack on Iran's nuclear sites in 2025.
The most significant defeat for Iran and its proxies in 2025 was the destruction or semi-destruction of the Fordow nuclear facility by U.S. stealth bombers.
Iran is attempting to rebuild its nuclear capabilities following a seriously damaging attack.