Niall Ferguson’s 2026 Forecast: More War, More Antisemitism, Less Unity
From Honestly
Niall Ferguson•Historian and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford
Executive Summary
The global geopolitical landscape is defined by "Cold War II," a great power competition between the United States and China that frames regional conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia.
In the Middle East, the core conflict is not Gaza but the escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran.
A renewed Israeli strike on Iran's rebuilding nuclear facilities is a strong possibility in 2026.
The war in Ukraine is expected to continue as a protracted war of attrition, with Russia's Putin unwilling to compromise and Ukraine facing significant manpower challenges.
The US-China rivalry is playing out through economic warfare, where China has demonstrated leverage with rare earth elements, and a strategic standoff over Taiwan, the most dangerous global flashpoint.
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Concerns Raised
Escalation of regional conflicts, particularly a direct war over Taiwan or a wider Middle East war involving Iran.
Ukraine's long-term viability due to manpower shortages and the grinding nature of the war.
China's strategic use of economic leverage, such as its monopoly on rare earth elements, to counter U.S. pressure.
The resilience of the Iranian regime and its continued pursuit of nuclear capabilities.
The mainstreaming of antisemitism and other extremist ideologies in the West, amplified by technology.
Opportunities Identified
U.S. leverage over China through its control of advanced semiconductor technology and design.
The potential to use targeted secondary sanctions on Russian oil to create pressure for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Diplomatic channels, as demonstrated by the Gaza hostage release, can achieve specific, tangible outcomes even within larger conflicts.