Keep pulling the thread on Niall Ferguson.
An axis of authoritarian states, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, has formed in the last four years.
The current axis of authoritarian powers (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) is larger in economic terms and has more firepower than the Axis powers of the late 1930s.
A new Cold War between the United States and its allies versus China and its allies has been ongoing since at least 2012.
Niall Ferguson believes the world is much closer to a potential World War III than most people are willing to admit.
In 2023, for the first time since 1934, the United States spent more on interest payments for its federal debt than on its defense budget.
According to Congressional Budget Office projections, the United States is on a trajectory to spend twice as much on debt interest payments as on defense by the year 2049.
The United States federal deficit under the Biden-Harris administration was 6% of GDP at the end of their term, a period characterized by full employment.
By 2049, the United States' defense budget as a percentage of GDP is projected to fall to a level comparable to current European defense budgets.
The United States' fiscal situation, where debt interest payments exceed defense spending, is perceived as a signal of weakness by adversaries such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
All G7 countries, with the exception of Germany, are currently spending more on debt interest payments than on defense.
Every G7 country currently has a total fertility rate well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The United Kingdom's productivity growth, measured as GDP per hour worked, has almost flatlined and is substantially below levels in the United States, France, and Germany.