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John Lieber believes it is likely the Democratic Party will win control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming election, with a smaller possibility of winning the Senate.
John Lieber predicts that the Trump administration is likely to reduce tariffs between now and the end of the year, partly due to a court case and cost of living concerns.
John Lieber predicts a 20 to 25 seat gain for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives in the upcoming election.
Greg Dacco predicts that upcoming data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages will result in a strong negative revision to U.S. job growth through March 2025.
Greg Dacco forecasts that after revisions and adjustments to the birth-death model, U.S. job growth for the full year 2025 will be very close to zero.
Marvin Lowe of State Street advises an investment strategy of 'Rotate America, not sell America', which he believes puts U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar most at risk.
President Donald Trump and his advisors are viewed as treating the United States economy like an emerging market, which is reflected in their ambitious growth targets.
A potential accord between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury that results in reduced purchases of long-end bonds would lead to higher yields.
Marvin Lowe predicts the yield curve spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries will widen to approximately 120 basis points.
John Lieber of Eurasia Group predicts the national political environment for the 2026 midterm elections looks very positive for the Democratic Party.
The most recent U.S. retail sales data showed 0.0% growth, missing the consensus expectation of 0.4% growth.
The U.S. personal saving rate has fallen by two percentage points since April.