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Countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa are preparing for sustained energy shocks, which will impact industries such as travel, tourism, and food.
Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are preparing for potential disruptions and closures of maritime navigation routes in the Indo-Pacific.
The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing countries and companies to look for currencies other than the U.S. dollar for transactions.
J.P. Morgan Private Bank's scenario analysis suggests that a sustained oil price of $120 to $140 per barrel could turn modest economic growth into a modest recession.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank believes the global economy is shifting from a multi-decade period of globalization towards an era of fragmentation.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts that due to global fragmentation, inflation will likely have a higher floor and greater volatility in the future.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts countries and companies will increasingly prioritize the reliability and security of supply chains over cost efficiency.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts a greater focus on developing domestic champions in the infrastructure and power sectors in the U.S.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts a greater focus on developing domestic champions in the security and defense sectors in Europe.
Steve Parker of J.P. Morgan Private Bank predicts a greater focus on developing domestic champions in the technology sector in Asia.
According to Steve Parker, investors began to scrutinize AI-related capital spending more carefully after hyperscalers shifted from funding it with free cash flow to using credit markets.
J.P. Morgan Private Bank's base case forecast is for oil prices to gradually decline over the next three to six months.