Keep pulling the thread on Francisco Blanch.
Francisco Blanch forecasts a global oil market shortfall of 2 to 3 million barrels per day through the end of the year due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Treasury Department reversed its decision and extended a general license waiver for Russian crude oil after initially stating it would not be renewed.
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship.
The U.S. president has threatened to attack every power plant and bridge in Iran if Tehran does not accept a U.S. deal.
Citing Fatih Birol of the IEA, Europe currently has approximately five weeks of jet fuel reserves.
Francisco Blanch predicts that even if 80-85% of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is restored in the next 2-3 months, it will take an additional six or more months to restore the final 10-15%.
Ukraine has reportedly attempted to attack Russian oil export facilities in the Black Sea ports of Tuapse and Novorossiysk.
The recent escalation between the U.S. and Iran has cast doubt on whether the two nations will proceed with planned peace talks.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that U.S. gasoline prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until next year.
The U.S. national average price for a gallon of gasoline is currently above $4, its highest level since August 2022.
According to a recent poll, two-thirds of Americans report that current gasoline prices are putting significant financial pressure on their families.
Francisco Blanch of Bank of America believes the paper oil market is priced for a perfect outcome and ignores the realities of a post-conflict energy economy.