Keep pulling the thread on Alex Karnal.
The launch of an oral version of Wegovy is seeing a launch cycle nearly four times larger than the most recent injectable launch, Zepbound.
Following the launch of lower-priced oral GLP-1s, the market has expanded from 200,000 to 300,000 new prescriptions per week in just a few months.
Data from Novo Nordisk indicates that GLP-1 medicines reduce the risk of heart attack or stroke by over 20%, an effect that is independent of weight loss.
PCSK9 inhibitor medicines can lower LDL (bad) cholesterol by 50%.
Longitudinal studies over 15 years showed that human populations genetically deficient in the PCSK9 protein had an 88% reduction in their risk of ever developing cardiovascular disease.
Compounded GLP-1s, priced around $200-$250 per month, captured an estimated 15-20% of the market from consumers who could not afford the branded versions.
GLP-1 medicines have the potential to protect patients from developing diabetes, reduce the risk of heart attack or stroke, protect kidneys, and help treat addictions to alcohol and drugs.
The GLP-1 class of medicines is projected to easily exceed $100 billion in annual revenue.
Existing medicines, such as statins and PCSK9 inhibitors, can dramatically lower the lifetime risk of a heart attack or stroke to below 10%.
Clinical data from Eli Lilly for its GLP-1 medicine showed a 94% reduction in the risk of a patient progressing from pre-diabetic to diabetic.
Alex Karnal predicts that later this year, Eli Lilly will release data showing that its anti-amyloid medicine has dramatic protective effects against Alzheimer's disease when administered early.
Current anti-amyloid medicines from Biogen and Eli Lilly can slow cognitive decline in late-stage Alzheimer's patients by approximately 30%.