Keep pulling the thread on Anna Kaufmannani.
In an adverse scenario where the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is postponed for one month, Brent crude prices could average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The head of LNG at Vitol stated that natural gas markets have experienced a 'massive amount of demand destruction' as the Middle East conflict cut supplies.
Anna Kaufmannani believes a permanent risk premium will be priced into commodities because the current crisis has made it clear that Iran has the power to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The world's spare oil production capacity is primarily located in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, and its accessibility is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open.
Brent crude oil is currently trading around $80 per barrel, which is in line with the year-end forecast from Anna Kaufmannani's firm.
According to the world's largest oil traders, the impact of the conflict involving Iran will continue for months even after a potential deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia is now fully utilizing its east-west pipeline, which was previously underutilized, to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Visible global oil inventories have already drawn down by an amount equivalent to half of the total inventory builds seen in the previous year.
Anna Kaufmannani suggests the United States may need to delay the retirement of some coal-fired power plants to meet future electricity demand.
The United States is a net importer of metals such as steel and aluminum, but not of energy commodities.
The United States government has implemented tariffs on steel and aluminum to incentivize domestic investment in those sectors.
A delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would necessitate greater utilization of strategic petroleum reserves, which would need to be replenished later.