Iran views the U.S. blockade as an 'act of war,' creating a high risk of retaliation and miscalculation.
The diplomatic process is at a complete standstill, with both sides locked in a 'chicken-or-egg' standoff over the blockade.
Iran's 'fractured leadership' makes it an unpredictable negotiating partner, hindering the potential for a stable, unified agreement.
Opportunities Identified
The indefinite extension of the ceasefire creates a window, however fragile, for back-channel diplomacy to resolve the impasse.
Economic pressure on China and other global powers from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead them to exert greater influence on Iran to de-escalate.
Iran has reportedly signaled a willingness to halt uranium enrichment for five years, which could serve as a starting point for a new nuclear agreement.