The landscape for technology investing has transformed over the past three decades, marked by a massive increase in scale, capital, and market valuations. Macroeconomic and regulatory factors, once peripheral, are now central concerns for tech investors.
The intense investor focus on AI and SaaS has led to a de-emphasis on consumer internet businesses. This herd mentality creates a significant contrarian opportunity for investors willing to look at a sector that is currently out of favor but still possesses enormous potential.
A core belief is that every great company endures a period of struggle or stagnation where investors lose faith. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix all went through these phases before achieving massive success, demonstrating the importance of resilience and long-term conviction.
Modern growth equity requires a systematic approach to deal sourcing. TCV has evolved from traditional outbound calling to a sophisticated data intelligence platform that uses AI to ingest and analyze data on millions of companies, allowing for more efficient and effective identification of investment targets.
A key lesson is to distinguish between the availability of a new technology and its commercial applicability. Many promising technologies (e.g., AR/VR, autonomous vehicles) take far longer than expected to find a viable monetization model, creating 'fool's gold' traps for investors who overestimate the near-term impact.
Keep pulling the thread on Jay Hoag.