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The consensus view of Academy Securities' geopolitical intelligence group is that the U.S. will likely need to escalate its conflict with Iran once more to achieve a victory.
The market is currently rewarding companies for replacing operating expenses (labor) with capital expenditures (AI and automation).
The CFTC has launched a civil investigation into a U.S. soldier's trading on Polymarket, marking the regulator's first such action involving prediction markets.
The CFTC is investigating large oil market positions allegedly placed just before President Trump's posts on Truth Social.
Iran has been exporting an average of two million barrels of oil per day over the last month.
Eurasia Group predicts that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will lead to a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May.
A potential deal between the U.S. and Iran would likely require Iran to stop enriching uranium in exchange for the U.S. lifting some sanctions, resembling the JCPOA.
Former CENTCOM commander Votel and a former CIA station chief predict it will take 9 to 12 months for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen and for a deal with Iran to be finalized.
Citi expects a combination of soft core inflation and a loosening labor market will convince a majority of the FOMC to cut interest rates before the end of the year.
Citi has pushed out its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to September.
Longer-dated WTI crude oil futures contracts for November delivery have reached $80 per barrel.
Academy Securities believes the U.S. must organically grow its domestic semiconductor manufacturing business for national security reasons.