Keep pulling the thread on Persian Gulf.
Over the last few days, maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been at approximately 5% of normal levels.
Since the start of the war, maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz have averaged 10% of normal levels.
The recovery in oil production in the Persian Gulf is expected to reach only 90% of the lost supply by December.
The cumulative loss of Persian oil production is estimated to reach approximately 2 billion barrels by the end of the year.
A cumulative loss of 2 billion barrels of oil production represents roughly 20% of total global oil inventories.
The speaker's firm has upgraded its forecast for Brent crude to $90 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
The speaker's firm has revised its global oil demand forecast from growth of over 1 million barrels per day to stagnation for the year.
In a severely adverse scenario with extended export delays from the Persian Gulf, Brent crude prices could reach $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter.
An Indonesian policy official stated that the country might consider implementing tolls for passage through the Strait of Malacca.
Significant demand destruction is occurring in the jet fuel and petrochemical feedstock markets, particularly in Asia.
The current Brent crude forecast of $90 per barrel is almost $30 higher than the firm's forecast before the war began.
The speaker's firm's forecast for Brent crude would be approximately $100 per barrel if it did not account for significant demand destruction.