Suzanne Maloney•Expert at Brookings Institution and Foreign Affairs Magazine
Executive Summary
The US and Iran are in a dangerous standoff, with the US imposing an economic blockade on Iranian oil exports and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz, risking catastrophic impacts on global oil prices.
The current Iranian regime is dominated by hardliners from the Revolutionary Guard who believe they can withstand US pressure and are unwilling to compromise, particularly on their nuclear infrastructure.
The Trump administration's "America First" foreign policy is characterized as highly militaristic and disinterested in traditional alliances, complicating diplomatic efforts and increasing unpredictability.
Despite severe economic hardship and brutal suppression of internal dissent, the Iranian regime has adapted its economy to sanctions and is prepared to endure a prolonged conflict.
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Concerns Raised
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have catastrophic implications for global oil prices and the economy.
The hardline, uncompromising nature of the Iranian regime makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely in the near term.
The US's militaristic and unilateral foreign policy approach increases the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
The Iranian regime's belief that it can outlast US pressure suggests a protracted and dangerous standoff.
Opportunities Identified
Serious, patient, and focused diplomatic negotiation is presented as the only viable path toward a long-term solution.
The significant internal dissent within Iran, while brutally suppressed, remains a long-term pressure point on the regime's stability.