Chairman Powell's decision to stay on as a governor after his term as chair is framed by him as a defense against political attacks on the Fed's independence. However, critics like Jim Bianco view it as a political act in itself, potentially creating a disruptive force within the institution.
A significant 8-4 dissent in the latest policy vote, the most since the 1990s, reveals a growing hawkish sentiment within the FOMC. A substantial group of members now favors removing the Fed's easing bias to adopt a neutral stance where a hike is as likely as a cut.
Brent crude oil has surged past $120/barrel amid conflict in the Middle East, with the duration of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz being a key variable. The oil futures curve suggests prices are expected to remain elevated, sustaining inflationary pressures on the economy.
BlackRock's Jeffrey Rosenberg suggests the world is moving from a multi-decade 'savings glut' to a 'savings deficit.' This shift is driven by major trends like reshoring supply chains, rebuilding infrastructure, and the energy transition, which are capital-intensive.
Keep pulling the thread on Jay Powell.