The world is more dangerous, with more active wars than at any point since WWII, due to the lack of a security-providing hegemon.
The NATO alliance is in 'serious peril', and the risk of nuclear proliferation is increasing as nations like Japan and South Korea contemplate acquiring their own weapons.
Key global institutions, particularly the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN climate process, have ceased to function effectively.
Major emitters like China and India are signaling caution on their climate ambitions, undermining the global effort to reduce emissions.
Opportunities Identified
Fluid, 'minilateral' coalitions of middle powers and non-state actors can form to tackle specific transnational problems, bypassing institutional gridlock.
The decline of US hegemony as a guarantor of global oil markets could accelerate the energy transition in energy-importing nations in Asia.
A bottom-up, networked approach to problem-solving may prove more politically resilient and effective for complex issues like climate change than failed top-down treaty models.
Developing nations have more agency to create new systems, such as South Africa's mRNA hub for vaccine manufacturing, to address their specific needs.