Zero: The Climate Race• Apr 30, 2026• 42:22Interview

A new world order is emerging. Can it tackle climate change? | Zero: The Climate Race

From Zero: The Climate Race

Gordon LaForge•Senior Policy Analyst, New America

Executive Summary

The post-WWII 'rules-based international order' led by the US is fragmenting, a decline accelerated by the Trump administration but rooted in decades of failures like the Iraq War and the 2008 financial crisis.
A new, more chaotic world order is emerging, characterized by fluid, 'minilateral' coalitions of middle powers, small states, and non-state actors forming around specific issues, a concept termed 'polyamorous geopolitics'.
This new system presents a paradox: while it may offer more agile, bottom-up solutions for complex problems like climate change, it creates a dangerous security vacuum without a clear hegemon, leading to increased conflict and nuclear proliferation risks.
Global institutions like the WTO and the UN climate process (UNFCCC) are proving ineffective, forcing a shift towards a messier but potentially more resilient web of regional and issue-specific partnerships.

9 quotes

Concerns Raised

The world is more dangerous, with more active wars than at any point since WWII, due to the lack of a security-providing hegemon.
The NATO alliance is in 'serious peril', and the risk of nuclear proliferation is increasing as nations like Japan and South Korea contemplate acquiring their own weapons.
Key global institutions, particularly the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN climate process, have ceased to function effectively.
Major emitters like China and India are signaling caution on their climate ambitions, undermining the global effort to reduce emissions.

Opportunities Identified

Fluid, 'minilateral' coalitions of middle powers and non-state actors can form to tackle specific transnational problems, bypassing institutional gridlock.
The decline of US hegemony as a guarantor of global oil markets could accelerate the energy transition in energy-importing nations in Asia.
A bottom-up, networked approach to problem-solving may prove more politically resilient and effective for complex issues like climate change than failed top-down treaty models.
Developing nations have more agency to create new systems, such as South Africa's mRNA hub for vaccine manufacturing, to address their specific needs.

Key Themes

The Decline of the Rules-Based Order

The discussion centers on the collapse of the post-WWII international system, which was underpinned by Western values, multilateral institutions, and US power. This order was always flawed ('pleasant fictions'), but its erosion has been accelerated by US withdrawal, exposing its fundamental ineffectiveness and unfairness in addressing modern challenges like climate change and pandemics.

This fundamental shift in global governance changes the calculus for international diplomacy, trade, and security, forcing nations and corporations to navigate a more unpredictable and fragmented landscape.

The Rise of 'Minilateral' Cooperation

In place of the old order, a new model of cooperation is emerging based on fluid, issue-specific coalitions of middle powers, corporations, and NGOs. Examples like the Bridgetown Initiative and Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) illustrate this trend toward smaller, more targeted alliances to solve specific problems.

This signals a move away from slow, consensus-based global treaties towards more agile, demand-driven partnerships, offering new avenues for progress on intractable issues but lacking the scale and authority of the old system.

The Security Vacuum and Increased Danger

A major drawback of the fragmenting world is the erosion of global security architecture. Without a dominant power (hegemon) to enforce norms, the world is becoming more anarchic, with more active wars than at any time since WWII and rising risks of nuclear proliferation as countries like Japan and South Korea feel less secure.

Heightened geopolitical instability and the breakdown of security alliances like NATO represent a significant material risk, impacting supply chains, investment security, and the potential for wider conflicts.

Rethinking Global Climate Action

The failure of top-down, universal climate agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement is presented as a prime example of the old order's shortcomings. The future of climate action is likely to be a messy combination of regional pacts, technological competition, and strategic imperatives, such as Asian countries pursuing renewables for energy security amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

This reframes climate strategy, suggesting that progress will depend less on global negotiations and more on leveraging national interests, security concerns, and targeted coalitions to drive the energy transition.

Get started free

Topics

Geopolitics International Relations Rules-Based International Order US Hegemony Trump Administration Foreign Policy Climate Change Global Cooperation Minilateralism Middle Powers Energy Transition Global Security Nuclear Proliferation WTO Paris Agreement

Processed Apr 30, 2026 yt-dlp + mlx-whisper + Gemini

You're reading a preview

Get started free →