Keep pulling the thread on Thoma Bravo.
Hyperscalers have invested a total of $45 billion into Anthropic.
China has blocked Meta's $2 billion acquisition of Manus.
Thoma Bravo has handed over control of Medallia to its creditors, resulting in a $5.1 billion equity wipeout.
OpenAI reportedly missed its targets for user growth and revenue.
Jason predicts that as AI agents become the primary users of LLMs, Anthropic's Claude will lose its competitive advantage which was primarily based on human developer preference.
Jason predicts that by late 2026 to 2027, most business workflows will be managed by AI agents, a shift that he believes will strongly favor OpenAI.
Anthropic is currently massively constrained on compute capacity, which is the primary driver for its large fundraising deals with hyperscalers.
Rory estimates that for foundation model companies like Anthropic, every dollar of run-rate revenue requires four to five dollars of capital expenditure in compute infrastructure to support it.
For a one-gigawatt data center build-out, approximately $20 billion is spent on compute, and with NVIDIA's 70% gross margins, this translates to $14 billion in raw profit for NVIDIA per gigawatt.
Google and Amazon are bundling their proprietary AI chips, which are not widely available standalone, with capital and equity investments to incentivize Anthropic to use their cloud platforms and hardware.
China's government has blocked Meta's planned $2 billion acquisition of the company Manus.
The Chinese AI company DeepSeek has raised outside financing at a $20 billion valuation.