Keep pulling the thread on Ike Fryman.
A forced or coerced seizure of Taiwan's semiconductor fabs by China, or their destruction, would cause a "hard reset" of the global economic system established since 1989.
U.S. policy towards Taiwan, known as "dual deterrence," aims to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence while also persuading Beijing that military intervention could face a devastating U.S. reaction.
The United States, Japan, and other allied countries should build domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity because long-term access to Taiwan's chip supply is not assured.
The attractiveness of China's "one country, two systems" offer to Taiwan has significantly diminished since 2019, as Taiwan observed the suppression of democratic institutions and freedoms in Hong Kong.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) currently lacks the capability to successfully take and hold Taiwan by force.
China is systematically building military capabilities for a potential Taiwan invasion, including expanding its amphibious fleet, developing anti-submarine warfare, and building longer-range ballistic missiles to target U.S. aircraft carriers.
Xi Jinping has shifted the social contract in China away from economic development towards an emphasis on ideology and national security.
Over the last 10 years, China has been systematically building "shock absorbers" into its financial system to make it more resilient to the impact of potential international sanctions.
Russia stabilized its currency after the 2022 sanctions by using its remaining $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves, imposing capital controls, and raising interest rates to 20%.
China possesses between 10 and 20 times the foreign exchange reserves that were available to Russia at the start of the Ukraine war, when counting its shadow reserves.
China has built stockpiles of essential goods, including cotton and chips, that would allow it to survive for many months if it were completely cut off from imports.
In a prolonged economic conflict, U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would experience the negative effects of resource shortages much faster than China would.