Keep pulling the thread on Javier.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are able to continue oil production by using bypass pipelines that circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave the OPEC+ alliance.
Global oil inventories, both commercial and strategic, are being significantly depleted.
The Trump administration intends to continue its blockade policy against Iran following a meeting between President Trump and the head of CENTCOM.
Iran is losing approximately $175 million per day in income from lost oil export revenue due to the ongoing blockade.
The U.S. Navy is preventing Iranian oil tankers from reaching the open sea after they have been loaded.
Oil producers in the Persian Gulf, such as Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, have reached their maximum storage capacity, causing their production to collapse.
Javier predicts that by mid-2027 to early 2028, continued production increases by the UAE will force Saudi Arabia to choose between cutting its own production to support prices or matching the UAE's output.
Iran's current strategic influence over the Strait of Hormuz is at its peak but is expected to weaken over time as more countries in the region build bypass pipelines.
The UAE cannot immediately increase its oil production after leaving OPEC+ because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and its bypass pipeline is already operating at maximum capacity.
The United Arab Emirates is the likely source for the additional oil needed to replenish depleted global inventories once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Exxon and Chevron operated their refineries at high utilization rates during March due to high refining margins.