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Catching a Falling Knife: The Truth About Software Stocks Today | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 54, Sonic AI
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Catching a Falling Knife: The Truth About Software Stocks Today | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 54
The Real Eisman Playbook
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Apr 13, 2026
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56:58
Interview
Catching a Falling Knife: The Truth About Software Stocks Today | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 54
From
The Real Eisman Playbook
Rob Oliver
(Software Analyst, Baird, guest)
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Executive Summary
The software sector has been 'obliterated' over the past year due to profound investor fears about the existential threat posed by generative AI, leading to a massive valuation collapse.
Key concerns are that AI drastically lowers the cost of software creation, erodes incumbents' pricing power, and enables large enterprises to build bespoke solutions or new AI-native companies to disintermediate established players.
Valuations have been cut in half, with the sector now trading at a significant discount to the S&P 500 for the first time in its history.
However, traditional software investors view this cheapness as a sign of trouble, not a buying opportunity.
Investors are in a 'wait-and-see' mode, as it's too early to identify which companies will successfully navigate the transition.
It will likely take at least a year for the winners and losers to become clear.
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AI's Existential Threat to Software
Valuation Collapse and Investor Psychology
The Innovator's Dilemma in the AI Era
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