Keep pulling the thread on Tolu Bukola.
Tolu Bukola predicts that if iGaming becomes legal in states representing 50% of the US population, DraftKings' iGaming segment could become a $5 billion revenue business.
The CFO of BetMGM stated that prediction markets are negatively impacting their financial results by taking market share.
In the UK, prediction markets like Betfair have operated for over 20 years and have stabilized at approximately 5% of the total betting market share.
The prediction market Calshi launched in 2018 and registered with the CFTC, claiming to be a derivative exchange to bypass state-level gambling regulations.
Tolu Bukola estimates that DraftKings' iGaming business is already generating between $300 million and $500 million in EBITDA.
A sell-side analyst estimated that the prediction market Calshi has already captured 10% of the US sports betting market.
Tolu Bukola argues that if prediction markets are allowed to operate unchecked in states like California and Texas, it will force those states to legalize online sports betting to capture tax revenue.
Prediction markets like Calshi do not pay state-level gambling taxes, which can range from 5% to 50%, giving them a significant cost advantage over regulated sportsbooks.
State-regulated sportsbooks incur significant compliance costs for problem gambling programs and sports integrity monitoring, which prediction markets currently avoid.
Members of the U.S. and Israeli militaries have allegedly used prediction markets to bet on the timing of military operations against Iran and Venezuela using insider knowledge.
Tolu Bukola predicts that legal challenges against prediction markets, involving over 20 states, are guaranteed to reach the Supreme Court, potentially by 2027.
The CFTC is currently operating with only one commissioner, a former crypto lawyer, instead of the usual five, and its enforcement division has been depleted.