Keep pulling the thread on Andy Summers.
Andy Summers predicts there is a 90% chance that a deal for Theravance Biopharma will be announced before its next earnings report on May 7th or 8th.
Sales of the drug Upelri grew 12% in the last year to approximately $260 million.
Theravance Biopharma's only drug in development, a rare orphan drug, failed its pivotal Phase 3 trial.
Following the news of its Phase 3 trial failure, Theravance Biopharma's stock declined by 30-35%.
Theravance Biopharma's strategic review committee has announced it is accelerating its process and considering options including a sale of the business.
Andy Summers expects the next step in Theravance Biopharma's strategic review will be to sell the company's remaining economics on its drug Upelri.
Theravance Biopharma is projected to have a pro forma cash balance of $500 million in early 2027, including a final $100 million payment from its Trilogy royalty sale.
Based on a $825 million market cap and $500 million in pro forma cash, Theravance Biopharma has an enterprise value of $325 million.
Andy Summers believes a fair value for Theravance Biopharma's stock is in the range of $20 to $22 per share.
Upelri is expected to have patent protection until 2039, as seven of the eight generic drug filers have settled for launch dates in that year.
Andy Summers values the U.S. business of Upelri at approximately $525 million.
Theravance Biopharma plans to reduce its annual operating expenses to approximately $40 million starting in the third quarter of the year by eliminating R&D spending and cutting SG&A headcount in half.