Keep pulling the thread on Rick Rieder.
The gross supply of U.S. Treasuries is approximately $520 billion per week.
Rick Rieder predicts that the United States can achieve 6% nominal GDP growth in the current year.
Rick Rieder believes the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates even with high nominal GDP growth because rate-sensitive sectors of the U.S. economy are in recession.
Rick Rieder predicts that the current boom in technology will lead to an unprecedented productivity revolution in the United States.
Rick Rieder predicts that the technology-driven transition in the U.S. labor market will be dislocating for at least a couple of years, particularly affecting large employment sectors like driving.
Rick Rieder predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will eventually fall to 4%.
The S&P 500 index experienced a 10% gain in the month of April.
A significant corporate default cycle in the United States is unlikely when the economy is experiencing nominal growth of 5-6% due to strong underlying cash flow.
Rick Rieder asserts that large parts of the U.S. economy, specifically rate-sensitive sectors like traditional manufacturing and housing, are currently in a recession.
The U.S. economy's growth is primarily driven by two engines: significant investment related to AI and strong consumption from high-income individuals.
Rick Rieder is not concerned about intermediate-term inflation in the United States because he expects technology-driven changes in productivity and employment to be deflationary.
Rick Rieder argues that the Federal Reserve should be more forward-looking and that historical analogs are not useful for setting monetary policy in the current economic era.