Keep pulling the thread on Timna Tanners.
Timna Tanners predicts that copper prices will not be significantly higher in a year due to several major mines coming back online.
Several aluminum smelters in the Middle East were directly hit by missiles and are not expected to resume operations soon.
Aluminum smelters in the Middle East that were hit by missiles will take 12 to 18 months to be rebuilt.
The global aluminum shortfall is now projected to be at least double the pre-Iran war estimate of one million tons.
Aluminum smelters in the Middle East are facing supply disruptions from a combination of direct missile hits, lack of alumina, and lack of LNG.
The current copper market is being driven more by speculators than by market fundamentals.
The recent spike in copper prices is not primarily driven by a sudden increase in Chinese demand.
Concerns about the availability of sulfuric acid and fuel are creating supply constraints for copper production in Peru.
U.S. steel demand is currently strong from data centers, border fence construction, utilities, and wind towers.
Demand for U.S. steel from the broader construction, automotive, and energy sectors is not strong.
Domestic U.S. steel mills are gaining market share as imports have declined due to 50% tariffs.
U.S. steel industry utilization reached 81.4% last week, a nearly four-year high.