BlackRock's Rosenberg says inflation could actually be peaking in recent data

Jeff Rosenberg speculates that U.S. inflation may have reached its peak and could begin to decline.

Jeff Rosenberg predicts that if inflation has peaked, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates but may also avoid further rate hikes.

The increased global need for debt financing is causing the term premium on long-term interest rates to rise.

Jeff Rosenberg predicts that the yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds will widen, causing the yield curve to steepen.

Jeff Rosenberg believes the belly of the yield curve offers a better risk-return profile for investors because current yields have adequately priced in inflation uncertainty.

Jeff Rosenberg predicts that yields on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve have more room to increase due to high demand for fiscal financing.

Companies in the AI sector are increasingly turning to the corporate debt markets for financing.

Credit markets currently have high liquidity and tight credit spreads, putting them in a strong position to absorb new corporate bond issuance.

The market risk from the supply of new corporate bonds is less significant than the risk from the supply of long-term government bonds.

Recent U.S. Treasury auctions have been poorly received by the market.

The poor performance of recent U.S. Treasury auctions reflects a mismatch between the supply of government debt and investor demand.

Unlike private companies which can experience failed debt auctions, U.S. government Treasury auctions will always clear, though potentially at lower prices and higher yields.