Keep pulling the thread on Dave Noddig.
SpaceX holds a near-monopoly on space launch services in the United States.
SpaceX plans to float only 5% of its stock in its initial public offering.
Despite its low 5% float, SpaceX is set to receive accelerated entry into the NASDAQ 100 index.
NASDAQ has changed its rules to allow very large companies to be included in the NASDAQ 100 index just 15 days after their IPO, down from the previous waiting period of six months.
Under its new rules, NASDAQ will treat a company with a 5% float, like SpaceX, as if it has a 15% float for weighting purposes in the NASDAQ 100 index.
Index funds tracking the NASDAQ 100 will be forced to buy approximately $7 billion worth of SpaceX stock on the day of its inclusion.
It is predicted that a significant lock-up expiration for SpaceX stock will occur approximately six months after its IPO, potentially increasing the float from 5% to 15%.
If SpaceX's float increases from 5% to 15% at the six-month mark, NASDAQ is expected to increase its effective weighting in the NASDAQ 100 from 15% to 45% due to the 3x multiplier rule.
The modern IPO market primarily serves to provide liquidity for private equity investors and insiders, rather than rewarding public market investors as it did historically.
SpaceX is structured as a multi-business conglomerate, which is an unusual structure for a company at the IPO stage.
SpaceX's conglomerate structure includes the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the AI company xAI with its product Grok, and the Starlink internet service.
SpaceX's Starlink business has 9 million subscribers for its commercial internet service.