Keep pulling the thread on Ben Carlson.
A study by Ben Carlson found that a hypothetical investor who only purchased stocks at the market peaks preceding the 1973, 1987, dot-com, and 2008 crashes would have still earned an internal rate of return of approximately 8% per year.
The worst 30-year return for the S&P 500 in the last century was an 850% total return (7.8% annually), for an investment made at the market peak in September 1929.
In 1989, Japan's stock market represented 45% of the global stock market index, a larger share than the United States at the time.
Ritholtz Wealth Management converted its tactical trend-following strategy from a separately managed account (SMA) to an ETF, the Goaltender ETF (GTND), to improve tax efficiency for clients.
A dollar-cost averaging investment strategy would have generated better returns than accumulating cash and investing it all at the market bottoms of the dot-com bubble or the great financial crisis.
Historically, a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has had a 100% chance of a positive return when held for 10 years.
In 2022, broad-market bond ETFs like the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) fell 20% as interest rates rose from 0% to 5%.
Buffer ETFs have grown to nearly $100 billion in assets under management.
Since 1989, a global stock market portfolio has returned approximately 9% per year, even as Japan's weighting in the index fell from 45% to 5%.
The United States currently constitutes 60% to 65% of the global stock market capitalization.
Ben Carlson predicts that AI will flatten information access globally, making it easier for people anywhere to start a business and potentially eroding the unique dominance of the US economy.
Companies in China are currently developing AI at a pace that is "neck and neck" with companies in the United States.