A prolonged conflict with Iran could severely disrupt global oil supply, fueling inflation and dampening economic activity.
Persistent inflation may force central banks to maintain tight policy, increasing the risk of a hard landing for major economies.
The rapid growth of the private credit market outside of regulated banking could be creating systemic financial risk.
Slowing contract growth for enterprise software companies like Salesforce indicates a potential spending pause as businesses re-evaluate AI strategies.
Opportunities Identified
Strong demand for AI servers and infrastructure is creating a significant tailwind for hardware companies like Dell.
Aggressive adoption of AI by financial institutions like JPMorgan is set to drive efficiency and create new competitive advantages.
The US consumer remains resilient, with strong income and spending data providing a buffer for the US economy.
Australia's economy is benefiting from skyrocketing prices for its commodity exports, including LNG, coal, and iron ore.