Keep pulling the thread on Kevin Warsh.
In the last three weeks, 10-year Treasury yields have risen by approximately 30 basis points, from 4.3% to 4.6%.
A hypothetical war with Iran has led to a reacceleration in headline CPI.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that headline CPI will peak in May 2024 at a level slightly above 4%.
An AI-driven supply shock is expected to cause inflation in memory chips, computer software, and storage drives, with the inflationary impact peaking in 2027.
The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes suggested that most members believe it will take much longer to lower inflation to 2% than they had previously thought.
Oil industry analysts believe that the prices of oil and gasoline will remain high for several months.
The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $4.56, an increase of $1.38 or 43% from $3.18 a year ago.
The war in Iran has disrupted fertilizer shipments, leading to reduced supply and higher prices, which will result in lower farm yields and higher food prices later this year and into next year.
Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's have all warned investors about an expected shift in consumer behavior during the second half of the year due to higher costs.
The recent 30 basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields is equivalent to almost 40 to 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Whenever 10-year Treasury yields surpass the 4.5% mark, rates become very restrictive and cause an immediate response in the housing sector.
The financial cushion provided to consumers by tax refunds this year is expected to be depleted by the middle of the summer.