Keep pulling the thread on Samo Burja.
The period from 1991 to 2014 was characterized by straightforward US hegemony, during which no country could grow its territory by altering borders without US approval.
Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked the end of the period of post-Cold War US hegemony.
Samo Burja predicts that China does not have aspirations to directly govern more of the world and will not annex territories like Korea or fight more than a small border war with India.
Samo Burja predicts that China will be a more important and influential state 10 years from now than it is today.
Samo Burja predicts the future world order will be dominated by giants like the United States and China, with India possibly joining them by the end of the century, but not the European Union unless it federalizes.
Samo Burja assesses that Ukraine has reached the limits of its societal and military mobilization and lacks significant domestic reserves to draw upon for its war effort.
Samo Burja predicts the ultimate military outcome of the war in Ukraine will be a marginal Russian victory, resulting in a net territorial gain for Russia.
Samo Burja predicts that Western support for Ukraine will significantly weaken within the next two years because democracies are poor at sustaining long-term backing for a country that appears to be losing a conflict.
Samo Burja assigns a 25% probability to a catastrophic collapse of the government in Kyiv, which could lead to a Russian occupation of Odessa or other major territories.
Samo Burja estimates there is less than a 10% chance that Ukraine will successfully reacquire Crimea or the land bridge connecting it to Russia.
Samo Burja argues that the Bronze Age collapse demonstrates that political decentralization is not a complete insurance against civilizational failure.
Samo Burja predicts that Russia will not grow significantly larger in territory due to its poor population fundamentals.