Keep pulling the thread on Samo Burja.
Samo Burja asserts that China's energy strategy is driven by economic logic that prioritizes growth by purchasing the cheapest available oil, rather than a geopolitical strategy focused on energy security.
China is not attempting to build a strategic energy bloc or cultivate countries like Iran and Russia as reliable, long-term partners in the way the U.S. has with Saudi Arabia.
Samo Burja predicts that a Western military strategy to blockade China and starve it of resources would ultimately fail, as China could exploit its domestic natural resources during a prolonged war.
Samo Burja estimates that the combined industrial base of the Western alliance, including East Asia, the United States, and Europe, is approximately equal to that of China alone.
Samo Burja concludes that China is not prioritizing energy independence because its leadership does not believe a major war is likely.
China's primary strategic priority is achieving a per capita income level comparable to South Korea or European countries, rather than focusing on military preparedness.
In a potential conflict with China, the United States would be unable to assert naval dominance over the South China Sea.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that a major industrial war can be fought involving a nuclear power without necessarily escalating to a full nuclear exchange.
Samo Burja predicts that in a prolonged industrial war between the United States and China, any pre-war technological military advantage would be rapidly obsoleted due to tremendous weapons innovation on both sides.
To be able to win a war against China, the United States would need to radically increase its manufacturing output to be two to three times that of China.
Samo Burja asserts that China is not making concrete preparations for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan within the next three years, citing its lack of effort to build up strategic oil reserves.
A 2015 estimate from the U.S. Energy Information Agency indicated that China has 32 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil.